Modelling the changing infection risks and malaria burdens in Kenya

Kenya provides a unique set of opportunities to apply the principles of high-spatial resolution geo-statistical modelling with its rich prospectively collected national data on parasite prevalence, intervention coverage and associated covariates that relate to access to interventions and malaria risk. This work has already formed the basis of recent strategic planning for malaria control in Kenya and will be used to quantify the population-attributable infection risk reduction associated with scaled, spatially quantified intervention coverage to predict changing morbidity and mortality impact using appropriate epidemiological and burden of disease models for Kenya through to 2016.